Complexity theory applied to policy worldwide

In our increasingly complex, interdependent world, it is important to recognize how policy changes in one part of the world can have important effects in another. Complex systems science has the ability to describe dependencies and infer their policy implications. One of the central methodologies of complex systems is multiscale analysis, which can be used to identify aspects of systems that have impact on a large scale and are therefore particularly relevant to policy. The New England Complex Systems Institute has used this method to demonstrate the significant role U.S. energy and market policies have played in the bouts of social unrest in the Middle East and elsewhere. This was done by connecting riots with rising food prices and showing that food prices increased as a direct result of federally mandated conversion of corn into ethanol and deregulation of speculation on commodity markets. Additional examples include the role of banking deregulation in the economic crisis, stock market deregulation in market crashes, the role of demographic geography in ethnic violence, and the impact of global transportation on pathogen evolution and the Ebola epidemic. Effective national and international policies should be considered using the insights of complex systems science to evaluate global consequences.